Iowa Is an 89% Match with U.S. Demographics & Predicts 70% of Democratic Nominees

• Main Findings
• Detailed Findings
• Ask the Experts
• Methodology
• Sociodemographics – Total Points: 20
• Economics – Total Points: 20
• Education – Total Points: 20
• Religion – Total Points: 20
• Public Opinions – Total Points: 20

Richie Bernardo, Senior Writer
Jan 20, 2016

Iowa is known for taking the presidential voting process very seriously. Unlike their primary-election counterparts, Iowa-caucus voters don’t simply show up at the polls and choose their favorite candidates. Their system includes an additional, unusual component: a community discussion that takes place in each of the state’s 1,681 precincts before either party’s registered constituents finally cast their ballots. The voting itself happens in one evening, after a yearlong process of meeting the contestants, arguing about them and enduring the bright glare of the media spotlight.

Over the years, this unique operation has attracted praise for exemplifying “grassroots democracy” as well as condemnation for perpetuating what many consider an outdated, unrepresentative procedure. Since the 1970s, however, Iowa has been the first state to confirm — or rather predict — a presidential hopeful’s success in the ensuing primaries and likelihood of advancement in the race. Iowa’s role, in effect, is to weed out the ineffective candidates, but it does not guarantee who will win the party nomination.

Iowa has gone to great lengths to secure its position as the first primary-election state. However, this caucus doesn’t actually have that good of a track record of predicting election results. Since 1976, 70 percent of Democratic winners in Iowa have received their party’s nomination, but only 37.5 percent of Republicans have. In addition, only 20% of Democrats and 12.5% of Republicans who have won Iowa have also been elected president. As the nation’s political attention now turns toward the Midwestern state, WalletHub compared Iowa’s demographic likeness and public opinions with the U.S. using 31 key metrics. Scroll down for the results, additional expert commentary and our detailed methodology.

Main Findings

 
 
100% for a particular metric fully matches the national value.
 

 
 
Note: The above chart was generated using data from 1976 for Democratic party nominees and Republican party nominees. We took into account only races in which at least two candidates were on the ballot.
 

Detailed Findings

Ask the Experts

Iowa hasn’t always been a major political spectacle during the primary-election cycle. It only became the first primary contest — and therefore the most significant — during the 1970s due to scheduling changes. But should it remain the election to lead off the presidential nominating contest? We asked a panel of experts for insight into that question as well as other timing and campaign issues related to the primary elections. Click on the experts’ profiles to read their bios and thoughts on the following key questions:

1. Does it make sense to have Iowa be the first primary contest given that its demographic and economic profile is very different from the national electorate?
2. Should the federal government have a role in setting the primary calendar for federal offices?
3. What are the pros and cons of having a single national primary day?
4. Do politicians have to wage a certain type of campaign in Iowa to succeed with voters? How does it differ for politicians from other states?

Methodology

To determine the areas in which Iowa most and least closely mirrors the demographic anatomy of the U.S. and its stances on certain issues, WalletHub examined five key dimensions as they relate to Iowa: 1) Sociodemographics, 2) Economics, 3) Education, 4) Religion, and 5) Public Opinion.

First, we compiled 31 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. For each metric, we then calculated the absolute difference between the value for Iowa and the U.S. average value.

In order to calculate the Overall Resemblance Index, we weighted the differences based on each metric’s weight and calculated a score between 0 and 100, wherein 100 corresponds with a perfect match with the U.S. reference values.

In some cases, due to the margins of error, the percentages for the sub-components of a metric did not add up to 100%, in which cases we made a slight proportional adjustment so that the sum of the percentages would be 100%.

Sociodemographics – Total Points: 20

• Gender: Full Weight
  1. % of Male
  2. % of Female
• Age: Full Weight
  1. % of Population Younger than Age 19 Years
  2. % of Population Between Ages 20 & 24 Years
  3. % of Population Between Ages 25 & 34 Years
  4. % of Population Between Ages 35 & 44 Years
  5. % of Population Between Ages 45 & 54 Years
  6. % of Population Between Ages 55 & 64 Years
  7. % of Population Aged 65 Years & Older
• Race: Full Weight
  1. % of White Population
  2. % of Hispanic Population
  3. % of Black or African American Population
  4. % of American Indian or Alaskan Population
  5. % of Asian Population
  6. % of Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Population
  7. % of Other Population
• Household Makeup: Full Weight
  1. % of Family Households (Families)
  2. % of Non-Family Households
• Family Relationship: Full Weight
  1. % of Population Who Are Householders
  2. % of Population Who Are Spouses (in Households)
  3. % of Population Who Are Children (in Households)
  4. % of Population Represented by Other Relatives (in Households)
  5. % of Population Represented by Nonrelatives (in Households)
• Health Insurance Coverage: Half Weight
  1. % of Population with Health Insurance Coverage
  2. % of Population without Health Insurance Coverage
• Place of Birth: Half Weight
  1. % of Foreign-Born Population
  2. % of Native Population

Economics – Total Points: 20

• % of Population with the Following Household Income Levels: Full Weight
  1. Less than $25,000
  2. $25,000 – 34,999
  3. $35,000 – 49,999
  4. $50,000 – $74,999
  5. $75,000 – $99,999
  6. $100,000 – $149,999
  7. $150,000 or More
• Poverty Rate: Half Weight
  1. % of Families in Poverty
  2. % of Families Above Poverty Line
• Wealth Gap: Half Weight
• Food Stamp Entitlement of Households: Half Weight
  1. % of Households Receiving Food Stamps
  2. % of Households not Receiving Food Stamps
• Number of Part-Time Employees for Every 100 Full-Time Employees: Half Weight
• Unemployment Rate: Half Weight
• Length of Average Workweek: Quarter Weight
• Civilian Employed Population Aged 16 Years & Older by Industry: Full Weight
  1. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Mining
  2. Construction
  3. Manufacturing
  4. Wholesale Trade
  5. Retail Trade
  6. Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
  7. Information
  8. Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
  9. Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative and Waste Management Services
  10. Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance
  11. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and Accommodation and Food Services
  12. Other Services, except Public Administration
  13. Public Administration

Education – Total Points: 20

• Educational Attainment: Full Weight
  1. % of People Aged 25 Years & Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
  2. % of People Aged 25 Years & Older with Some College Experience or Associate’s Degree
  3. % of People Aged 25 Years & Older Who Are High School Graduates
  4. % of People Aged 25 Years & Older Who Did Not Complete High School
• School Enrollment: Full Weight
  1. % of Population Aged 3 Years & Older Enrolled in School
  2. % of Population Aged 3 Years & Older not Enrolled in School

Religion – Total Points: 20

• Religious Composition of Adults: Full Weight
  1. Evangelical Protestant
  2. Mainline Protestant
  3. Historically Black Protestant
  4. Catholic
  5. Mormon
  6. Orthodox Christian
  7. Jehovah’s Witness
  8. Jewish
  9. Muslim
  10. Buddhist
  11. Hindu
  12. Unaffiliated
  13. Other Religions
• Belief in God Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Belief in God; absolutely certain
  2. Belief in God; fairly certain
  3. Belief in God; not too/not at all certain
  4. Belief in God; don’t know
  5. Do not believe in God
  6. Other/don’t know if they believe in God
• Importance of Religion in One’s Life Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Very religious
  2. Moderately religious
  3. Nonreligious

Public Opinions – Total Points: 20

• Party Affiliation Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Republican/lean Rep.
  2. No lean
  3. Democrat/lean Dem.
• Political Ideology among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Conservative
  2. Moderate
  3. Liberal
  4. Don’t know
• Views about Size of Government among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Smaller government; fewer services
  2. Bigger government; more services
  3. Depends
  4. Don’t know
• Views about Government Aid to the Poor among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Does more harm than good
  2. Does more good than harm
  3. Neither/both equally
  4. Don’t know
• Views about Abortion among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Legal in all/most cases
  2. Illegal in all/most cases
  3. Don’t know
• Views about Homosexuality among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Should be accepted
  2. Should be discouraged
  3. Neither/both equally
  4. Don’t know
• Views about Same-Sex Marriage among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Strongly favor/favor
  2. Oppose/strongly oppose
  3. Don’t know
• Views about Environmental Regulation among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy
  2. Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost
  3. Neither/both equally
  4. Don’t know
• Views about Human Evolution among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Evolved; due to natural processes
  2. Evolved; due to God’s design
  3. Evolved; don’t know how
  4. Always existed in present form
  5. Don’t know
• Should Able-bodied, Mentally Capable Adults who Receive Welfare be Required to work: Full Weight
  1. Yes
  2. Yes, adults who receive government benefits should be required to work
  3. Yes, and eliminate welfare all together as it is not authorized in the Constitution
  4. No
  5. No, but in order to receive benefits they should be looking for a job or enrolled in education and job training programs
  6. No, but their benefits would expire after two years of unemployment
  7. No, “workfare” is a form of slave labor
• Should There Be More Restrictions on the Current Process of Purchasing a Gun: Full Weight
  1. Yes
  2. No
  3. Other

Sources: Data used to create these rankings were collected from the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Gallup, Pew Research Center and iSideWith.com.