Electorate Representation Index: Which States Most Closely Resemble the U.S.?

• Main Findings
• U.S. Snapshot
• Ask the Experts
• Methodology
• Sociodemographics – Total Points: 20
• Economy – Total Points: 20
• Education – Total Points: 20
• Religion – Total Points: 20
• Public Opinion – Total Points: 20

Adam McCann, Financial Writer
Feb 27, 2020

The first two elections in the primary cycle are complete, though the Iowa caucus was plagued by technical difficulties and delays in vote reporting. As we look back on the first two nominating contests, we must consider one controversial topic that surfaces every primary season: the apparent “whiteness” of Iowa and New Hampshire. The matter usually boils down to a single question: How could two mostly rural states with majority-white populations fairly represent the national electorate?

Under that logic, handing the earliest positions in the presidential primaries to the Hawkeye and Granite states would understandably seem undeserved and bring into question whether candidates are dropping out of the race simply because of a flawed system. But as it turns out, the issue is a bit more complicated. Many experts have argued that entitlement to the earliest position in the primaries should be based on multiple factors, not solely on a state’s racial composition.

Earlier this year, WalletHub compared the likeness of the U.S. with Iowa and New Hampshire and found that these states — to the expected surprise of many — mirror the nation by 89 percent and 82 percent, respectively. This time, we sought to identify which of the 50 states are truly representative of the U.S. population and thus truly worthy of the top primary-election spot. Scroll down for the results, expert political commentary and our detailed methodology.

Main Findings

U.S. Snapshot

Sociodemographics

• Gender
  1. % of Female Population: 49.24%
  2. % of Male Population: 50.76%
• Age
  1. % of Population Aged 19 & Younger: 25.40%
  2. % of Population Between Ages 20 & 24: 6.90%
  3. % of Population Between Ages 25 & 34: 13.80%
  4. % of Population Between Ages 35 & 44: 12.60%
  5. % of Population Between Ages 45 & 54: 13.20%
  6. % of Population Between Ages 55 & 64: 12.80%
  7. % of Population Aged 65 & Older: 15.20%
• Race
  1. % of White Population: 61.10%
  2. % of Hispanic Population: 17.80%
  3. % of Black or African American Population: 12.30%
  4. % of American Indian or Alaskan Population: 0.70%
  5. % of Asian Population: 5.40%
  6. % of Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Population: 0.20%
  7. % of Other Population: 2.60%
• Household Makeup
  1. % of Family Households (Families): 65.70%
  2. % of Non-Family Households: 34.30%
• Family Relationship
  1. % of Population Who Are Householders: 38.00%
  2. % of Population Who Are Spouses (in Households): 18.40%
  3. % of Population Who Are Children (in Households): 30.10%
  4. % of Population Represented by Other Relatives (in Households): 7.40%
  5. % of Population Represented by Nonrelatives (in Households): 6.10%
• Health Insurance Coverage
  1. % of Population with Health Insurance Coverage: 90.60%
  2. % of Population without Health Insurance Coverage: 9.40%
• Place of Birth
  1. % of Foreign-Born Population: 13.50%
  2. % of Native Population: 86.50%

Economy

• % of Population with the Following Household Income Levels
  1. Less than $25,000: 20.20%
  2. $25,000 – 34,999: 9.30%
  3. $35,000 – 49,999: 12.60%
  4. $50,000 – $74,999: 17.50%
  5. $75,000 – $99,999: 12.50%
  6. $100,000 – $149,999: 14.60%
  7. $150,000 or More: 13.30%
• Poverty Rate
  1. % of Families in Poverty: 10.10%
  2. % of Families with Income above Poverty Line: 89.90%
• Wealth Gap: 16.49
• Food Stamp Entitlement of Households
  1. % of Households Receiving Food Stamps: 12.22%
  2. % of Households not Receiving Food Stamps: 87.78%
• Number of Part-Time Employees for Every 100 Full-Time Employees: 47.93
• Unemployment Rate: 3.90%
• Length of Average Workweek: 38.70 hours
• Civilian Employed Population Aged 16 & Older by Industry
  1. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Mining: 1.80%
  2. Construction: 6.50%
  3. Manufacturing: 10.20%
  4. Wholesale Trade: 2.60%
  5. Retail Trade: 11.30%
  6. Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities: 5.20%
  7. Information: 2.10%
  8. Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing: 6.60%
  9. Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative and Waste Management Services: 11.40%
  10. Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance: 23.10%
  11. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and Accommodation and Food Services: 9.70%
  12. Other Services, except Public Administration: 4.90%
  13. Public Administration: 4.60%

Education

• Educational Attainment
  1. % of People Aged 25 & Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher: 31.50%
  2. % of People Aged 25 & Older with Some College Experience or Associate’s Degree: 29.00%
  3. % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Are High School Graduates: 27.10%
  4. % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Did Not Complete High School: 12.40%
• School Enrollment Composition
  1. % of Population Aged 3 & Older Enrolled in School: 26.16%
  2. % of Population Aged 3 Years & Older not Enrolled in School : 73.84%

Religion

• Religious Composition of Adults
  1. Evangelical Protestant: 25.40%
  2. Mainline Protestant: 14.70%
  3. Historically Black Protestant: 6.50%
  4. Catholic: 20.80%
  5. Mormon: 1.60%
  6. Orthodox Christian: 0.50%
  7. Jehovah’s Witness: 0.80%
  8. Jewish: 1.90%
  9. Muslim: 0.90%
  10. Buddhist: 0.70%
  11. Hindu: 0.70%
  12. Unaffiliated: 23.30%
  13. Other Religions: 2.20%
• Belief in God Among Adults
  1. Belief in God; absolutely certain: 63.00%
  2. Belief in God; fairly certain: 20.00%
  3. Belief in God; not too/not at all certain: 5.00%
  4. Belief in God; don’t know: 1.00%
  5. Do not believe in God: 9.00%
  6. Other/don’t know if they believe in God: 2.00%
• Importance of Religion in One’s Life Among Adults
  1. % Very religious: 37.00%
  2. % Moderately religious: 30.00%
  3. % Nonreligious: 33.00%

Public Opinion

• Party Affiliation Among Adults
  1. Republican/lean Rep.: 38.00%
  2. No lean: 17.00%
  3. Democrat/lean Dem.: 45.00%
• Political Ideology Among Adults
  1. Conservative: 33.00%
  2. Moderate: 36.00%
  3. Liberal: 24.00%
  4. Don’t know: 7.00%
• Views About Size of Government Among Adults
  1. Smaller government; fewer services: 51.00%
  2. Bigger government; more services: 42.00%
  3. Depends: 3.00%
  4. Don’t know: 4.00%
• Views About Government Aid to the Poor Among Adults
  1. Does more harm than good: 44.00%
  2. Does more good than harm: 50.00%
  3. Neither/both equally: 4.00%
  4. Don’t know: 2.00%
• Views About Abortion Among Adults
  1. Legal in all/most cases: 53.00%
  2. Illegal in all/most cases: 43.00%
  3. Don’t know: 4.00%
• Views About Homosexuality Among Adults
  1. Should be accepted: 62.00%
  2. Should be discouraged: 31.00%
  3. Neither/both equally: 4.00%
  4. Don’t know: 3.00%
• Views About Same-Sex Marriage Among Adults
  1. Strongly favor/favor: 53.00%
  2. Oppose/strongly oppose: 39.00%
  3. Don’t know: 8.00%
• Views About Environmental Regulation Among Adults
  1. Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy: 38.00%
  2. Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost: 57.00%
  3. Neither/both equally: 2.00%
  4. Don’t know: 3.00%
• Views About Human Evolution Among Adults
  1. Evolved; due to natural processes: 33.00%
  2. Evolved; due to God’s design: 25.00%
  3. Evolved; don’t know how: 4.00%
  4. Always existed in present form: 34.00%
  5. Don’t know: 4.00%
• Should Able-Bodied, Mentally Capable Adults Who Receive Welfare Be Required to Work?
  1. Yes: 74.00%
  2. Yes, adults who receive government benefits should be required to work: 4.00%
  3. Yes, and eliminate welfare all together as it is not authorized in the Constitution: 1.00%
  4. No: 6.00%
  5. No, but in order to receive benefits they should be looking for a job or enrolled in education and job training programs: 13.00%
  6. No, but their benefits would expire after two years of unemployment: 1.00%
  7. No, “workfare” is a form of slave labor: 1.00%
• Should There Be More Restrictions on the Current Process of Purchasing a Gun?
  1. Yes: 59.18%
  2. No: 40.82%
  3. Other: 0.00%

Ask the Experts

As the first caucus and primary-election states, respectively, Iowa and New Hampshire share a crucial role in the presidential-nominating process. For candidates, they are the “make or break” states that affirm whether their candidacy is viable enough to continue in subsequent primaries. But is there a better system? We asked a panel of experts to weigh in on this and other related issues. Click on the experts’ profiles to read their bios and thoughts on the following key questions:

1. Should states that mirror the national electorate come earlier in the primary process? How would this change U.S. elections?
2. Should the primary system be changed to have a single national primary day?
3. Given the demographic projections, should states with growing Latino and other minority populations receive more attention from candidates?

Methodology

To determine which states most closely resemble the sociodemographic anatomy of the U.S. and its stances on certain national issues, WalletHub examined five key dimensions as they relate to the remaining primary-election states: 1) Sociodemographics, 2) Economy, 3) Education, 4) Religion, and 5) Public Opinion.

First, we compiled 31 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. For each metric, we calculated the absolute difference between the value for each state and the U.S. average value.

In order to calculate the Overall Electorate Representation Index, we weighted the differences between the state and the U.S. based on each metric’s weight and calculated a score between 0 and 100, wherein 100 corresponds with a perfect match with the U.S. reference values. Finally, we ranked the states based on the values of the Overall Electorate Representation Index.

In some cases, due to margins of error, the percentages for the subcomponents of a given metric did not add up to 100 percent, in which case we made a slight proportional adjustment so that the sum of the percentages equals 100 percent.

Sociodemographics – Total Points: 20

• Gender: Full Weight
  1. % of Male
  2. % of Female
• Age: Full Weight
  1. % of Population Aged 19 & Younger
  2. % of Population Between Ages 20 & 24
  3. % of Population Between Ages 25 & 34
  4. % of Population Between Ages 35 & 44
  5. % of Population Between Ages 45 & 54
  6. % of Population Between Ages 55 & 64
  7. % of Population Aged 65 & Older
• Race: Full Weight
  1. % of White Population
  2. % of Hispanic Population
  3. % of Black or African American Population
  4. % of American Indian or Alaskan Population
  5. % of Asian Population
  6. % of Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Population
  7. % of Other Population
• Household Makeup: Full Weight
  1. % of Family Households (Families)
  2. % of Non-Family Households
• Family Relationship: Full Weight
  1. % of Population Who Are Householders
  2. % of Population Who Are Spouses (in Households)
  3. % of Population Who Are Children (in Households)
  4. % of Population Represented by Other Relatives (in Households)
  5. % of Population Represented by Nonrelatives (in Households)
• Health Insurance Coverage: Half Weight
  1. % of Population with Health Insurance Coverage
  2. % of Population without Health Insurance Coverage
• Place of Birth: Half Weight
  1. % of Foreign-Born Population
  2. % of Native Population

Economy – Total Points: 20

• % of Population with the Following Household Income Levels: Full Weight
  1. Less than $25,000
  2. $25,000 – 34,999
  3. $35,000 – 49,999
  4. $50,000 – $74,999
  5. $75,000 – $99,999
  6. $100,000 – $149,999
  7. $150,000 or More
• Poverty Rate: Half Weight
  1. % of Families in Poverty
  2. % of Families Above Poverty Line
• Wealth Gap: Half Weight
• Food Stamp Entitlement of Households: Half Weight
  1. % of Households Receiving Food Stamps
  2. % of Households not Receiving Food Stamps
• Number of Part-Time Employees for Every 100 Full-Time Employees: Half Weight
• Unemployment Rate: Half Weight
• Length of Average Workweek: Quarter Weight
• Civilian Employed Population Aged 16 & Older by Industry: Full Weight
  1. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Mining
  2. Construction
  3. Manufacturing
  4. Wholesale Trade
  5. Retail Trade
  6. Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
  7. Information
  8. Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
  9. Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative and Waste Management Services
  10. Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance
  11. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and Accommodation and Food Services
  12. Other Services, except Public Administration
  13. Public Administration

Education – Total Points: 20

• Educational Attainment: Full Weight
  1. % of People Aged 25 & Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
  2. % of People Aged 25 & Older with Some College Experience or Associate’s Degree
  3. % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Are High School Graduates
  4. % of People Aged 25 & Older Who Did Not Complete High School
• School Enrollment: Full Weight
  1. % of Population Aged 3 & Older Enrolled in School
  2. % of Population Aged 3 & Older not Enrolled in School

Religion – Total Points: 20

• Religious Composition of Adults: Full Weight
  1. Evangelical Protestant
  2. Mainline Protestant
  3. Historically Black Protestant
  4. Catholic
  5. Mormon
  6. Orthodox Christian
  7. Jehovah’s Witness
  8. Jewish
  9. Muslim
  10. Buddhist
  11. Hindu
  12. Unaffiliated
  13. Other Religions
• Belief in God Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Belief in God; absolutely certain
  2. Belief in God; fairly certain
  3. Belief in God; not too/not at all certain
  4. Belief in God; don’t know
  5. Do not believe in God
  6. Other/don’t know if they believe in God
• Importance of Religion in One’s Life Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Very religious
  2. Moderately religious
  3. Nonreligious

Public Opinion – Total Points: 20

• Party Affiliation Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Republican/lean Rep.
  2. No lean
  3. Democrat/lean Dem.
• Political Ideology Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Conservative
  2. Moderate
  3. Liberal
  4. Don’t know
• Views About Size of Government Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Smaller government; fewer services
  2. Bigger government; more services
  3. Depends
  4. Don’t know
• Views About Government Aid to the Poor Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Does more harm than good
  2. Does more good than harm
  3. Neither/both equally
  4. Don’t know
• Views About Abortion Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Legal in all/most cases
  2. Illegal in all/most cases
  3. Don’t know
• Views About Homosexuality Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Should be accepted
  2. Should be discouraged
  3. Neither/both equally
  4. Don’t know
• Views About Same-Sex Marriage Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Strongly favor/favor
  2. Oppose/strongly oppose
  3. Don’t know
• Views About Environmental Regulation Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy
  2. Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost
  3. Neither/both equally
  4. Don’t know
• Views About Human Evolution Among Adults: Full Weight
  1. Evolved; due to natural processes
  2. Evolved; due to God’s design
  3. Evolved; don’t know how
  4. Always existed in present form
  5. Don’t know
• Should Able-Bodied, Mentally Capable Adults Who Receive Welfare Be Required to Work?: Full Weight
  1. Yes
  2. Yes, adults who receive government benefits should be required to work
  3. Yes, and eliminate welfare all together as it is not authorized in the Constitution
  4. No
  5. No, but in order to receive benefits they should be looking for a job or enrolled in education and job training programs
  6. No, but their benefits would expire after two years of unemployment
  7. No, “workfare” is a form of slave labor
• Should There Be More Restrictions on the Current Process of Purchasing a Gun?: Full Weight
  1. Yes
  2. No
  3. Other

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Sources: Data used to create these rankings were collected from the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Gallup, Pew Research Center and iSideWith.com.